Methodology for exploring signals of change for future foresight
What it does.
This comprehensive methodological tool is a practical guide to explore and foresee early signals of change for future foresight. The guide provides various tools and techniques for identifying early signals and exploring future scenarios, which allow the user to delve into prospective analysis, collective intelligence, and horizon scanning.
Value proposition for the government/other partner.
By employing a comprehensive methodological toolkit for exploration, both the public and private sectors can gain insights into trends that may impact their long-term operations. This enables them to adapt, react, and anticipate changes, ultimately enhancing organizational functioning and evolution.
Why and when to use it.
This tool proves most valuable in navigating environments characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). It is effective when dealing with sudden, unforeseen changes, in situations where anticipation or prediction becomes increasingly challenging, amidst a multitude of interconnected elements at various levels, and when events or issues defy simplistic or binary categorization.
Known issues and troubleshooting.
To implement this tool, you must dedicate a certain amount of time and effort to generating a comprehensive analysis of the signals of change. If there is a lack of human resources available at the organization for conducting this analysis, it may not yet be the best moment to use this tool.
Additionally, this tool might not be the best approach when dealing with organizations with little interest, or willingness, to integrate future foresight into its decision-making processes. Without the presence of such interest and willingness, particularly at the managerial levels, the effort put into implementing this tool might end up being wasted. In situations like this, consider first dedicating efforts to foster a future mindset within the organization.
Context.
This tool was created in the context of the work of the Argentina Lab’s Exploration area. The building of this Exploration Guide was aimed at developing an orderly and clear methodology for carrying out prospective analysis that would serve the area, as well as others interested in foreseeing possible changes and trends. For the development of this tool, we recollected lessons derived from our very own foresight practice, together with insights gathered from specialized literature. Furthermore, based on this tool, the AccLab conducted a futures exploration. For our foresight exercise, we set a 10-year time frame and focus on signals of change that could significantly impact Argentina and its development. When searching for signals, we looked at the social, economic, technological, environmental, and health environments. For example, we found signals of change associated with deepfakes as evidence, universal basic income in blockchain, insects as a source of protein, and sleeping disorders as a public health issue, among others.
Cost to implement.
The cost varies depending on the scope you set for the exploration exercise. The cost of hiring the required team could require a budget of between USD 2,000 and USD 6,000 per professional. Additionally, you might consider assigning resources for printing materials useful to support the exploration exercise, such as visual tools like future wheels, or signals cards. This could add USD 1000 to your budget, depending on the amount.
Time
The work of identifying signals of change, conducting their analysis and visualization, including the implementation of collective intelligence activities, can take two to four months. However, the time of implementation can vary depending on the scope you set for the exploration exercise.
People.
The team responsible for designing and conducting the exploration can be relatively small, comprising:
- One person responsible for the management of the futures exploration.
- One collaborator to assist in the implementation.
- One designer or professional in graphic facilitation to conduct the visual exploration of signals and develop visual tools for the collective intelligence activities.
Depending on the exploration’s scope, additional collaborators may be necessary. Furthermore, you can enhance the exploration process by incorporating collective intelligence activities. Therefore, when planning your people strategy, consider the audience you wish to engage in these collective intelligence exercises as well. In doing so, you will need to consider if you need to incorporate further collaborators to conduct these collective intelligence activities.
Focal point.
Country, year, and language.
Argentina, 2022 - ongoing; Spanish and English.
Resources.
- Manual (Spanish) – Explorando futuros: guía para impulsar el cambio, anticipándose a tendencias
- Manual (English) – Exploring futures: A guide to driving change, foreseeing trends
- Blog (Spanish) – ¿Cómo anticiparnos a tendencias? Una breve reseña sobre prospectiva.
- Blog (English) – How can we anticipate trends? Foresight analysis to the rescue!
- Blog (Spanish) – Escenarios futuros e inteligencia colectiva.
- Blog (English) – Future Scenarios and Collective Intelligence.